The cover story in the December 22, 2008 issue of Forbes titled “The Next Disaster” offers a bleak view of the challenges facing Mexico amid rising social violence in the wake of Calderon’s crackdown on the drug trade and economic recession in the U.S., Mexico’s main trading partner. 

The title of the article, which is probably good for magazine sales, and its subject matter, contrasts sharply to comments in the same Forbes issue by Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who recently purchased a majority stake in ailing retailer Circuit City, Mexican Ambassador to the U.S., Arturo Sarukhan, and U.S. Ambassador to Mexico, Tony Garza Jr., all of whom were interviewed in adjacent columns. 

Salinas, having lived and profited through Mexico’s various crises, was not improbably sanguine about Mexico’s prospects, commenting: “I have been through so many crises.  This is just one.  And I’ve seen worse.”  Ambassador Sarukhan emphasized Mexico’s progress in rooting out corruption in government and the high demand for illicit drugs in the U.S.  Ambassador Garza said, “I am actually quite optimistic.  Long term, I think Mexico’s economic prospects are strong.”

The article includes a map illustrating the drug cartels that control various geographic regions of Mexico; cartel control over most of the country’s territory is disputed.  90% of the cocaine that enters the U.S. comes from Mexico, the article said.

Although Mexico’s economy will likely return to growth when the U.S. emerges from recession, until the U.S. can dramatically reduce black market demand (which appears to be inelastic) for illicit drugs, social violence will probably (and sadly) remain a major obstacle for Mexico’s long-term economic development.